The wait is finally over; the 18-year memes can finally rest. Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) is the team to beat as we head into IPL 2026. Bengaluru probably hasn’t fully recovered from the party, and Eee Sala Cup Namde has become Cup Namdu.
But if you’re betting, forget the feelings and stories. RCB winning in 2025 was great, but betting on them in 2026 could be a mistake.
If you want good Value what every sports bettor wants putting money on the defending champs this season might not be a good idea. Here’s why you should consider other teams to win IPL 2026.
1. The Fan Tax and Artificial Odds
In sports betting, Value = (Probability x Decimal Odds) – 1. If the result is greater than 0, you have a value bet.
The problem with RCB is that they possess the largest and most passionate fanbase in the league. Now that they are champions, that support has reached a fever pitch. Thousands of fans will be betting on RCB to go back-to-back purely out of loyalty and recent memory.
Bookmakers anticipate this. To balance their books and mitigate risk, they will artificially shorten RCB’s odds.
- Real Probability of winning: Might be 15% (roughly 6.5 decimal odds).
- Bookmaker Odds: Will likely be offered at 4.5 or 5.0.
When you bet on the defending champs (especially a popular team like RCB or CSK), you are paying a Fan Tax. You are accepting a bad price because the market is flooded with emotional money.
2. The Regression to the Mean
History is not on the side of the defending champions. In the 19-year history of the IPL, only two franchises (CSK and MI) have ever managed to defend their title successfully.
Winning an IPL requires a perfect storm: players peaking at the right time, injury luck, and winning the toss in crucial games. Statistically, it is incredibly difficult to replicate that variance two years in a row. Teams that overperform one season (winning close games, unlikely heroes stepping up) often regress to their average performance the following year.
3. The “Target on the Back” Syndrome
In 2025, RCB found a formula that worked. Maybe it was their death bowling finally clicking or a specific batting tempo.
The issue? Every other team has had 12 months to decode it. Video analysts from the Mumbai Indians, the Gujarat Titans, and the KKR have spent the off-season dissecting the RCB’s strengths.
- Did their openers struggle against left-arm pace? Expect teams to load up on left-armers.
- Did they rely on spin in the middle overs? Opponents will draft aggressive sweepers of the ball.
The element of surprise is gone. In IPL 2026, RCB won’t be the hunters; they will be the hunted.
4. Auction Dynamics: Hunger vs. Complacency
We saw it in the recent auction. Teams that lost in 2025 (like KKR and MI) were aggressive. They plugged holes, spent big (e.g., KKR grabbing Cameron Green), and reshuffled their squads to fix what went wrong.
Defending champions, however, tend to be conservative. They often retain the same core, trusting the winning combination. While stability is good, T20 cricket evolves rapidly. A squad that was perfect for 2025 might be slightly outdated for the tactical trends of 2026.
Where is the Real Value in IPL 2026?
If you shouldn’t bet on the favourites, where should you look?
- The “Wounded Giant”: Mumbai Indians (MI) MI rarely stays down for long. If they had a poor 2025, their odds will be longer (better Value). Their scouting network is elite, and they often bounce back from bad seasons with a trophy.
- The Aggressive Spenders: Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR). KKR broke the bank for Cameron Green in the auction. Markets often undervalue the immediate impact of a single X-factor signing. If their odds are around 7.0 or 8.0, that represents significantly better mathematical Value than RCB at 5.0.
The Verdict
We aren’t saying RCB can’t win. They have the talent, the confidence, and the momentum. But as a bettor, your job isn’t to predict the winner; it’s to find mispriced odds.
The market is currently treating RCB like a sure thing, pricing them as if they are destined to repeat. The history of the IPL tells us that it is rarely the case. In IPL 2026, let the fans bet with their hearts on the champions. You should bet with your head on the teams hungry to dethrone them.
Smart Play: Lay RCB on the exchange or look for Each-Way value on teams like MI or GT.